7 August 2006
The Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Department of Economics Releases
Survey Results on Business Confidence in June 2006
The Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Department of Economics releases the survey results on Business Confidence in June 2006. The survey was conducted by Associate Professor Andy Kwan Check-Chiu of the Department of Economics. Chairmen or CEOs of 30 locally-listed enterprises were surveyed on the financial situation and profitability of the enterprises, and views about Hong Kong’s present and future economic situation in a form of questionnaire during 15 June and 20 July 2006.
The survey found that 50% of respondents thought the present economic situation is “better” compared to that of six months ago. 40% said “same as six months ago” and 10% thought “worse”. Compared with the survey in December 2005, less respondents (-19%) chose “better” and more (+4%) said “worse”.
When asked about the economic situation in the coming six months, 37% said “will be better than now”. And those expected “the same” or “getting worse” were 46% and 17% respectively. Compared with the last survey, those chose “better” dropped 19% and those chose “worse” increased by 2%.
The survey also revealed 40% of respondents said the financial situation of their enterprises “is better than that of six months ago”. Those chose “the same” or “getting worse” were 50% and 10% respectively. Compared with the December 2005 survey, those chose “better” dropped 13% and those chose “worse” rose 1%. On the outlook of financial situation in the coming six months, 50% said “better” than the present, 30% said “the same” and 20% said “worse”. Those chose “better” dipped 6% and those chose “worse” increased by 11% when compared with the December 2005 survey.
53% of respondents predicted the profitability of their enterprises would improve in the coming six months, whereas 27% said “the same” and 17% “worse”. While those said “better” decreased by 3%, those said “worse” rose 11% compared with the last survey.
Questions
(Remarks: Questions and Answers are in Chinese.)
|
Answers
|
December 2005
|
June 2006
|
Changes compared with December 2005
|
問題一
與六個月前比較,香港整體經濟環境是變好、變差或跟六個月前一樣 ? |
變好
變差
跟六個月前一樣
唔知道 |
69%
6%
25%
0% |
50%
10%
40%
0% |
-19%
+4%
+15%
unchanged
|
問題二
展望未來六個月,香港整體經濟環境是比 現在好、比現在差或跟現在一樣 ? |
比現在好
比現在差
跟現在一樣
唔知道 |
56%
19%
25%
0% |
37%
17%
46%
0% |
-19%
-2%
+19%
unchanged
|
問題三
與六個月前比較,貴公司的財務狀況是變 好、變差或跟六個月前一樣 ? |
變好
變差
跟六個月前一樣
唔知道 |
53%
9%
38%
0% |
40%
10%
50%
0% |
-13%
+1%
+12%
unchanged
|
問題四
展望未來六個月,貴公司的財務狀況是比現在好、比現在差或跟現在一樣 ? |
比現在好
比現在差
跟現在一樣
唔知道 |
56%
9%
35%
0% |
50%
20%
30%
0% |
-6%
+11%
-5%
unchanged
|
問題五
展望未來六個月,貴公司的盈利是比現在好、比現在差或跟現在一樣? |
比現在好
比現在差
跟現在一樣
唔知道 |
56%
6%
38%
0% |
53%
17%
27%
3% |
-3%
+11%
-11%
+3% |
Index of Business Confidence
The Index of Business Confidence was compiled from question# 2, 4 and 5. The first survey was conducted in June 2002 and the baseline index was 100. The higher the index, the better the confidence to the future economic situation and business environment of local business leaders.
The latest index is 95.2, a drop of 11.7 from last study. This is the second consecutive drop of the index, indicating that negative factors such as soaring oil prices, macro-economic regulation carried by the Chinese Government and geo-political risks in the Middle East are eroding business leaders’ confidence to the local economic development in the second half of the year. As the US economy has started to turn downward, it is expected local economic growth will slow down in view of numerous unfavorable conditions.
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Index of Business Confidence |
June 2002 |
100 |
December 2002 |
82.3 |
June 2003 |
96.6 |
December 2003 |
126.1 |
June 2004 |
120.9 |
December 2004 |
112.1 |
June 2005 |
113.1 |
December 2005 |
106.9 |
June 2006 |
95.2 |